Meet Me In St. Louis

Rick Majerus is back in the game, baby!! I'm remaining moderately composed only because the big guy has been known to change his mind before. Regardless, his hiring means I no longer have to suffer through his periods of excruciating babble on Big Ten telecasts. Sure, over time I will probably grow to miss the occasional "O-ffense" reference, but for now, I will celebrate with a double-stacker ham and cheese sandwich.

Do yourself a favor and check out this spectacular archive of Majerus quotes. If only he was that entertaining on the air ...

I found it odd that Brad Soderberg got dumped for Majerus when that is precisely what Wisconsin intended to do back in 2001 when it let Soderberg go. Also, Majerus (a Sheboygan, WI native) got his head coaching start at Marquette, which like St. Louis, is a Jesuit Catholic university. We all know Majerus as the long-time Utah coach, which got me asking myself one question: does Rick Majerus enjoy maintaining a personal basketball rivalry with Mormons? Utah and BYU are bitter rivals, and the Catholic-Mormon angle is a cheap rivalry that journalists can drum up every time. I hope the Billikens schedule the Cougars soon.

Lastly, are there any Wisconsin fans out there worried that Majerus might try to lure Trevon Hughes to transfer to St. Louis? He sure buttered him up during every Badger game. Maybe no one told Trevon about it. But seriously, that's one heck of a man crush.

"Text Message" is a Verb

As mentioned a week ago, the recruiting practice of text messaging has been under the microscope. Now, the NCAA has officially banned coaches from text messaging recruits, closing a technological loophole. It's about time. The story details how the athletes themselves dislike the aggressiveness of the method. Imagine waking up with 52 unread messages!!

Putting the ban into place starting in August should curtail the abuse by some of the slimier coaches. Hmmm ... Tom Crean loves to text, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's preview piece yesterday in anticipation of the change. In a way, those coaches were smart to exploit the loophole as long as they could (a la the "Bret Bielema rule" revisions in college football). However, it only takes a second to see the kind of hounding that the top prospects must have endured. Not everybody wants that much attention.

Speaking of cell phone technology, let's have one more look at my favorite hands-free device.

NBA Draft Update

The past few days have been full of decisions about the future of certain high-profile collegiate underclassmen. The recent string of announcements culminated Wednesday with a second Georgia Tech freshman declaring early and a couple of UCLA Bruins announcing their official return to school for their junior seasons. Great news for UCLA, bad news for NBA teams looking to draft a point guard this year. With Darren Collison's return, the potentially loaded point guard draft became 2008, not 2007. Among stellar freshmen, only Mike Conley Jr. declared, while UNC's Ty Lawson and Texas' D.J. Augustine stayed put. Acie Law IV appears to be the only solid lead guard left at the top of the board, but his stock is slipping.

All the activity makes for some bad decisions. You really have to feel for kids who get bad advice and go full speed ahead with the draft only to be left on the cutting room floor. ESPN's resident NBA Draft guru Chad Ford has posted a great, up-to-date list of early entry declarations. For a more in-depth look at such players, swing on by DraftExpress.

The early entry eligibility deadline is 11:59 p.m. ET on April 29. A large number of players who have already declared are waiting to hire an agent this year, indicating a trend to test one's marketability at the earliest sign of success. As long as the player does not hire an agent and can pay his own way to workouts/camps, he has until June 18 to withdraw from the draft without repercussions.

To refresh on the schedule of events facing guys like Oden, Durant, Tucker ... even Bucks GM Larry Harris ... visit NBA.com's draft coverage online. There you will find a breakdown of each team's odds of landing the top prize in this year's draft lottery. The ping-pong magic happens May 22, usually at halftime of an NBA Playoff game. Careers will be made and hearts will be broken that day. I hope Danny Ainge is kept away from sharp objects during the proceedings. Then, finally, the 2007 NBA Draft will take place way down the road on June 28. Just two months away, kids.

Sorry Iowa fans -- from the sound of things at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament earlier this month, Adam Haluska won't be getting his name called by the Association. Time to learn Italian!

State of the Site

You'll notice two things about the website these days. One, I replaced the generic blog header with a title banner -- which I will tinker with constantly over the next few weeks (and I welcome all comments and suggestions). Secondly, The Google video search bar has been moved front and center to the sidebar for better visibility and usability. In order to make it worthwhile, I will need to change the search keywords every once in a while to avoid lame videos. But if you missed the Free Ticket episodes, Marinara's got you covered. "All Access 4"? Tell me you don't love Bo Ryan, the greatest snake oil salesman of all-time.

Expect a recruiting post very soon. AAU season is in full swing, which means Badger prospects are in full bloom. The spring is the time for kids to earn their (full ride) money. Early reports are that Wisconsin was the first to offer a scholarship to Royce White, yet another Minnesota product. White is a 6'6" swingman from Minneapolis in the Class of '08 who has been impressing on the circuit. UW has had decent luck offering early to Twin Cities-area recuits (Kam), so Badger fans should keep an eye out for this guy. White plays on the same Howard Pulley team as Jordan Taylor and Jarred Berggren, who are both committed to Wisconsin for 2007.

A late run on Pittsburgh native D.J. Kennedy might be a stretch for Wisconsin, but Bo and Co. are at least in the conversation, according to Rivals.com. Maybe Bo's old Chester, PA connections will pan out. Incidentally, Kennedy's Schenley team defeated Chester in the Pennsylvania Class AAAA championship this past season.

: : :

Check out the voice on this chap talking with Kam Taylor for a recent Sirius radio interview, circa the NCAA tournament. Unreal. Like in a Muppet sort of way. "Wisconsin guard KAAAm Taylor here ... you're a bAAAsketball player."

Depatures from the Big Ten

Players transferring after a head coaching change is nothing new. But when I heard that Iowa released super-frosh Tyler Smith from his scholarship on Friday, it was a little surprising. Moving closer to home, where his father is dealing with cancer, is understandable. His change or heart puts Iowa in an even tougher position as Todd Lickliter attempts to rebuild the program.

Although Iowa expected to say goodbye to only two seniors following the season, the Hawkeyes now must replace over 60 percent of their per-game scoring from 2006-07.

Smith is just one of several Big Ten departures so far this spring. Sophomore Maurice Joseph is leaving Michigan State. Purdue was hit with transfer requests from three young players, including guard Chris Lutz who led the conference in 3-point shooting percentage. Unlike Iowa, however, both MSU and Purdue have highly-rated incoming recruits to offset the losses and build upon.

With a mediocre freshman class expected next year, Iowa is one team in the Big Ten anticipating a much tougher season in 2007-08. Northwestern will again be the sludge of the conference. Although early-entry candidates have weakened Ohio State, the Buckeyes will be competing for Big Ten titles annually under Thad Matta. Wisconsin's personnel losses were to graduation, but the same high expectations apply to Bo Ryan's bunch.

Indiana, like Michigan State, is an early favorite at the top of the league. Guard phenom Eric Gordon's arrival coupled with D.J. White's surprise return for a senior season will make Kelvin Sampson's second year in Bloomington a special one. Michigan and Minnesota will be better through coaching upgrades alone.

Penn State also returns four starters, including the now-seasoned Geary Claxton-Jamelle Cornley duo that ranked 1-2 on the team in both scoring and rebounding. Of course, they were supposed to be improved last season as well ... I don't think 11-19 qualified as a breakthrough. The other team I cannot figure out is Illinois. The karma feels quite bad in Champaign, where off-the-court issues continue to mount in addition to the team dropping to ninth in the Big Ten in scoring offense. Shaun Pruitt is considering the NBA Draft for some odd reason, but the Illini did just add junior college star Rodney Alexander to their incoming class.

For what it's worth, Wisconsin teams have seemed to thrive in the underdog role, rather than as a favorite. Expect the conference to be much more balanced next season, unlike the Big 2/Little 9 look that we've seen so often in football. Purdue served reasonably well as my sleeper pick last season, but I'll take a little more time to make a pick this season. You never know who else will jump ship between now and the next tip-off.

On the Stove Top

Capital Times columnist Mike Lucas is trying to dampen my spirits by saying UW minus Tucker and Taylor is hopeless against the Dukies. Hah! So what if Wisconsin loses its greatest senior tandem of all-time? Duke had its best player declare for the draft as a sophomore ... and he sucks. Sure, Duke brings in another stellar recruiting class, but what have you done for me lately Coach K? You've brought in McD's All-Americans by the boatload, but haven't had much to show for it lately.

I'm going to have to break this match-up down position-by-position in the near future, but I have no reason to believe the Badgers don't have a good shot at winning this game. Duke's best player will be a sophomore (Jon Scheyer) and I still think Wisconsin has the edge in overall experience. Butch, Landry, Flowers, Krabby ... if anyone can handle Cameron Indoor Stadium, it's that group.

Links:
Is the wait over? OSU declarations ...
(From yesterday) NCAA considers ban on text messaging recuits.

Dancing With The Devils

The match-up that Badger Nation has been longing for years is now an official reality with the announcement of the pairings for the ninth annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge: Wisconsin will travel to Duke for an 8 pm (CT) tip-off on Tuesday, Nov. 27, 2007.

It is not humanly possible for someone to be a more biased fan than I will be during that game. It is the first-ever meeting between my alma mater and my most hated sports team of all-time. The over/under on the number of times I wish physical harm on a Duke player has opened at 18 ½.

This seems like the ideal time to prop up one of my favorite web destinations of all-time: Truth About Duke. A nice stop for the Blue Devil-basher in all of us.

The scheduling news continued today when the Big Ten revealed that next year the conference schedule will increase from 16 to 18 games. Now, I'm not saying Bo is popping Cristal over the change, but hopefully he's relaxing with a good scotch and enjoying the step towards a true 20-game round-robin setup. It's a win-win situation. The teams and coaches get a more balanced schedule. As fans, this means a longer Big Ten season and thus, more good games.

Wisconsin fans should like what they see with the non-conference slate and feel confident that extending the conference season does not necessarily mean sacrificing quality non-conference opponents. The university is in the midst of finalizing its new series with Texas, which replaces the home-and-home with Pittsburgh. In addition to the annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge, the Badgers also play Georgia again and can always count on Marquette to be formidable.

So much for the lack of Wisconsin basketball news.

: : :

Former UW interim head coach Brad Soderberg is out at St. Louis University. Soderberg had an average five-year run, but never made the NCAA tournament with the Billikens. Soderberg won 20 games, a personal best and a first for St. Louis since 1997-98. His conference record dipped from 10-6 to 8-8 in the Atlantic 10 Conference this season, but there is speculation that St. Louis wanted to shake up some excitement for its new arena that open over a year from now.

The timing is pretty bad, both for Soderberg and the university. Nothing like bringing in a coach who will automatically be two months behind. St. Louis had also just gotten a commitment on Friday from SF Marcus Relphorde of Chicago. Oops, sorry kid. Hopefully St. Louis was not the only shot at a big-time scholarship for Soderberg's son either. (Kramer lit up the middle school competition in Sun Prairie back in the day).

Maybe controversy just follows Brad Soderberg. Just like his departure from Wisconsin, he was let go after a decent season ended on a sour note. Although St. Louis' 60-40 loss in the A-10 tournament semifinals cannot hold a candle to UW's 2001 NCAA disaster, both exits came with some outcry.

I'm sure the mentor is not happy. Unlike Bo, Dick Bennett might be having an angry scotch after this news.

Surviving the Off-season

I've found it tough to keep this space's emphasis on Wisconsin hoops when nothing is happening with Wisconsin hoops. The 2007 recruiting class is set in stone and no one knows what to expect out of the team next year minus three senior starters. Beyond the preliminary doom-and-gloom predictions or cautious optimism voiced on message boards, we have hit a lull. In Madison, the spring football game is coming and basketball is the last thing on the general public's mind.

But if you ever want to relive the 2006-07 season, Wisconsin's official Web site has a 10-part season-in-review series of articles, statistics and quotes complied by Brian Lucas, UW's assistant director of atheltic communications. Those that were not in attendance at the final home game can view the senior tribute video that was shown afterward (about six minutes in is a highlight package that includes the infamous alley-oop from Devin to Alando against Michigan State). Plus, UW has added the HBO and Free Ticket television pieces that aired this season, which were quite good.

So here's what you can look forward to this spring, Badger-wise: info on the Tucker draft workout process, 2008 recruiting, and various "best of" lists regarding Wisconsin basketball that I never got around to during the season. That's my intention at least. Giddy-up!

Follow Up

Someone asked me what I thought about Mike Conley Jr. going pro along with Greg Oden. I said during the season that there was no way Conley would leave school. That was based on how much he theoretically could improve by playing another year in college ... improving his jumper, beefing up ... basically becoming "the man" as opposed to one of the "Thad Five."

Well, Conley certainly played himself into a bit more money during the NCAA tournament. He's arguably the top point guard on the board, above Acie Law IV. Selfishly, I love watching Conley play and would like him to stay in college. I don't watch pro basketball nearly as much as Big Ten basketball. If he goes, Wisconsin is going to be in the mix for a Big Ten title again. So, you know, we'd have that going for us ...

If Conley sticks around one more year, Ohio State can be just as good next season simply because Oden was so underutilized (partly due to injury). The Buckeyes only lose Ron Lewis and Ivan Harris in addition to the big guy. Ohio State has more than enough firepower returning, along with more stellar recruits, to offset Lewis and Harris. Defensively, they would not be as intimidating, but with improvement from every other player, the team defense could potentially be just as effective. That's where Thad Matta would really earn his money.

Early entry candidates have until April 29 to declare for the NBA Draft. According to the AP today, Oden and Conley are no closer to making a decision. Which means Oden is waiting for Conley to decide for him. Or was it Conley Sr. who decides? Maybe the dad is going to push Davis Stern to allow the first-ever playground "package deal" on draft day.

Links:
- Discussion on tanking is everywhere: Tom Oates in the Wisconsin State Journal
- At last! Can we finally move on, sports media?

Stepping To The Next Level, Part II

Yesterday I started to discuss what kind of numbers I thought Kevin Durant would post in his rookie season. I decided to research the first few seasons of some of the young phenoms to whom Durant has been compared. Factors I thought might be valuable to keep in mind were games played and minutes-per-game, in addition to the quality of the teams each player was on.

Let's begin.
Note: Height & weight measurements are from draft day.

Kevin Garnett (6'11"/220)

In the 1995-96 season, Garnett played 28.7 min/g in 80 games as a rookie after being drafted fifth overall by Minnesota. The Timberwolves were coming off a 21-61 season and were bad again (26-56) in The Kid's first campaign, where he put up 14.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg and 2.3 bpg per 40 minutes*. At age 20, Garnett improved to 17.5 ppg (per 40) with similar rebounding and block numbers. Likewise, Minnesota's record improved to 40-42 with Garnett playing about 10 more min/g in his second season. With the team's first talented guard (Stephon Marbury) by his side, Garnett made the first of eight consecutive trips to the playoffs.

The T-Wolves were a terrible franchise when KG arrived, six years removed from expansion status and going absolutely nowhere. A premium was placed on developing him into a fearsome, agile post presence. Subsequently, Garnett has added 33 pounds of muscle since entering the league. If it weren't for Garnett, you might wonder if pro basketball would still exist in Minnesota. I can see Durant facing the same questions KG has regarding his ability to make others around him better.

Tracy McGrady (6'8"/210)

McGrady was drafted ninth overall by Toronto in the 1997 NBA Draft. The Raptors were atrocious the following year (16-66) and McGrady played only 18.4 min/g over 64 games. But averaged over 40 minutes, his numbers looked like this as an 18-year old: 15.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg & 2.1 bpg. Not bad. McGrady was less well-known than Garnett coming into the league and injuries in his second season hid his improvement, when he averaged 16.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg & 2.4 bpg (per 40). McGrady's (and Toronto's) breakout season coincided with Vince Carter's arrival the following year and he finally reached supernova status at 21 when he fled to Orlando.

Despite recurring back problems, T-Mac's scoring average has not dropped below 25 since escaping Carter's shadow. Unlike Garnett, McGrady has made his living on the perimeter. He has bulked up to 223 lbs., but uses his height to get open jumpers and loves the reverse lay-up. He is the most obvious comparison to Durant, as Durant might be the only player we could envision duplicating McGrady's 35-second explosion versus the Spurs [WARNING: long YouTube clip].

Carmelo Anthony (6'8"/220)

Anthony was the most heralded of the group, going #3 overall to Denver after leading Syracuse to the NCAA title. In 2003-04, 'Melo and Andre Miller helped the Nuggets improve from 17-65 to 43-39. He put up a legit 21.5 ppg because he played 36.5 min/g right out of the gate. Overall, Anthony averaged 23 ppg, 6.7 rpg & 3 apg (per 40) as a rookie. At age 20, Anthony's numbers remained nearly identical before his scoring average skyrocketed last season.

As a scorer, Anthony and Durant are very similar due to their tactics pulling up and backing down defenders inside the arc. Durant's three-point shooting is far superior, however. The year of collegiate action that both experienced should allow Durant, like 'Melo to post a higher scoring average right away.

Shawn Marion (6'7"/228)

You won't hear too many comparisons between Marion and Durant, mostly because Marion left college after his junior season. But Marion has always been a quietly outstanding rebounder and Durant certainly has that potential with a few extra inches and similarly long arms. Marion is also the only player in this group to have dropped weight since his college days.

Marion was also drafted ninth, by Phoenix, in 1999. The Suns were already a pretty decent team with Jason Kidd at the helm. The team enjoyed the first of back-to-back 50-win seasons with Marion, then 21, playing 24.7 min/g that season in 51 games. His per-40 averages of 16.5 ppg, 10.5 rpg & 1.7 bpg rose to 19.2/11.9/1.5 in the 2000-01 season. Amazingly, Marion led the entire team in scoring and rebounding as his PT increased to 36.2 min/g. His numbers have remained steady ever since, even though swapping Kidd for Marbury in year three devastated the team until Steve Nash's arrival.

: : :

Durant has a ceiling as high or higher than any of these fellas. He will get major minutes. He will immediately become the face of his new franchise, whether it be Memphis, Boston or some dark horse like Milwaukee or Atlanta. A team like Memphis might need a player like Durant even more than a Greg Oden-type. As Oden "mulls" over his future, Durant's mind is set. He can focus 100% on the task at hand and will no doubt dazzle everyone in sight when he works out for various NBA teams. The longer Oden waits, the better Durant's chances are of snagging that #1 draft position from Gramps.

I see Durant putting up a solid 19-20 ppg while putting on weight as a rook. It's likely that the team he lands on won't be as terrible as their 2006-07 record showed. I appreciate that Bill Simmons is railing on Boston and Milwaukee for tanking, though he took a break today to analyze NBA draft lottery trends on his Basketball Blog. If Durant is drafted by a team with a decent point guard, he could easily see a quantum leap in his numbers like Anthony did. By year three, anything less than 27 ppg & 9 rpg might be a disappointment.

'Can he be a leader' is another topic altogether. Despite sweeping the nation's Player of the Year awards, his Texas teammates did not even vote him a unanimous MVP this season -- he shared the award!

*If you like sports statistics and haven't checked out the Sports-Reference family of websites yet, shame on you. The resources are fantastic. I drew my "per 40 minutes" stats directly from Basketball-Reference.com.

Stepping To The Next Level, Part I

Kam Taylor probably needed to make a strong impression at the Portsmouth Invitational to have a shot at a pro career. Even though this particular pre-draft tournament has lost its appeal to top prospects, it still attracts a number of players in Kam's position--seniors who need to secure their status as a draftable commodity or maybe even work their way into a European contract.

Matthew Maurer of The Draft Review had this to say on NBADraft.net regarding Kam's performance in Virginia:

"The Wisconsin Badger who had a solid NCAA tournament shot the ball extremely well off the dribble here and even showed impressive leaping ability on an alley oop dunk. Taylor failed to show that he can play the point guard position though."

Maurer is no household name, so take that info with a grain of salt. More than one source, however, listed Purdue's Carl Landry as impressing the scouts.

Alando Tucker was not present, so Badger fans will have to wait and see how much he can improve (solidify?) his current value in the minds of assorted NBA brass. On most sites, Tucker is being projected as a late first-round draft pick, though he is one of the top five prospects in this year's senior class. Darn those underclassmen declaring early--they are costing 'Do some dough!

For what it's worth, here are two Tucker draft profiles:
Draft Express | NBADraft.net

: : :

Kevin Durant, on the other hand, is now officially signed, sealed and all-but delivered as one of the first two draft picks in June. Analysts are comparing the wiry Texas frosh to Tracy McGrady, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion and Carmelo Anthony.

Expect Durant to post rookie numbers more gaudy than those of McGrady or Garnett, but slightly less impressive than Anthony's. My thinking is that Durant, at 6'10 and 220 lbs., has a body most like Garnett, who entered the league an inch (or two) taller at the same weight. Both Garnett and McGrady (6'8"/210) were similar to Durant in that they were freaky athletic but rail thin. But like 'Melo, Durant also has one year in college under his belt, which neither McGrady or KG did.

Athleticism aside, Durant's game really is a combination of:
(1) Anthony's mid-range game and ability to take over a game,
(2) Marion's outside shooting and rebounding ability,
(3) McGrady's ball-handling and creativity, and ...
(4) a dash of Garnett's enthusiasm.

I even did some research, which I will post tomorrow. Bear with me.

National Champs, Part Deux

Florida repeated as national champion Monday night, thus cementing its position as one of the greatest college basketball teams of modern times. If nothing else, the '05-'07 Gators are certainly one of the most dominant tournament teams ever. Like 11 teams before them, Ohio State fell victim to Florida flipping the "ON" switch and bringing down a devastating combination of talent and unselfishness upon their helpless victims. America ate it up with a spoon.

I was enjoying several polls on ESPN's SportsNation tonight (check out how much Wisconsin hates Barry Bonds). A plurality of the ESPN web-citizens felt that what's latest is greatest when it comes to NCAA repeaters. I never thought I would defend Duke, but the Devils did upset a truly great team (UNLV) during their first title run in 1991 and bested a ferocious title contender (Kentucky) in their repeat bid in 1992. You can't really say the same for Florida's opponents the past two seasons. To be in the conversation is the honor--one that Florida earned at Monday's final horn.

On the home front, Ohio State's offensive drought during the late first-half run by Florida doomed the Big Ten rep. It's a telling point that Greg Oden posted his most dominant performance of the year, but the Buckeyes still could not mount any charge in the second half. Regardless, Oden needs to flee college ball to gets some real competition.

Ohio State shot a poisonous amount of three-pointers and shot them poorly (props to Big Ten Wonk on his last day). Florida contained Mike Conley Jr. for the most part, allowing Greg Oden to rack up his double-double. Ron Lewis came back to earth. Lee Humphrey did not. End of story.

It would be a truly historical feat to three-peat, not that anyone is holding their breath. At least three Gators are NBA-bound next season, maybe more. The amount of hype that would follow Florida around day-to-day would dwarf that of this year and almost certainly disrupt the amazing harmony the team enjoyed when it really mattered. Egos don't get smaller with two-time defending champions.

Not to mention Humphrey, the NCAA tournament's all-time leader in made three-pointers, is a senior this year. Florida has talent to spare and a sick crop of incoming freshmen, which will ultimately keep Donovan in Gainesville. Yet, even if the juniors returned, the Gators might not even be the preseason No. 1 in the fall with Kansas and North Carolina's thoroughbreds all a year older.

So I'll be saying goodbye to Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer. Unless the Bucks draft one of them (please Larry Harris, say 'no' to Noah).

: : :

Seth Davis continues to disappoint me. A few years ago when Davis made his CBS debut, he seemed well-informed, connected and polished. Now he just gets under my skin belittling the Badgers whenever possible and, apparently, lower his standards. How is rational to be pleased by the ridiculous interview Noah gave following the title game? He talks (looks?) like a special education student. I began referring to Noah as "Kim" a while ago, but with the help of this hilariously disrespectful YouTube video, I can never go back. And as one of Bill Simmons' readers brought to his attention, Noah is actually 22 years old already. He should sound more mature than his peers, not exponentially less mature. But let it be known that he is probably still "doing it up real big" 24 hours after Florida's victory.

: : :

Updates:
- Randolph Morris is averaging 0.5 ppg with 3 DNPs!!
- Iowa hires Butler's Lickliter; Michigan buys out Beilein's contract

Links:
- Arkansas gets screwed/Dana Altman might be whipped
- Central Florida head coach Kirk Speraw is my new hero (YouTube)